In Case You Hadn’t Figured It Out By Now…

Posted on October 31, 2004

JWM 2004 Election Day Prediction Contest: Post Your Predictions Here

Posted on October 29, 2004

This is the official thread for entries for the JWM 2004 Election Day Prediction Contest. Post your comments below. Read the rules and resources post before entering.

Note that I have made one significant change to the rules since announcing the contest: given the increasingly likely scenario of one or more states being tied up in Florida 2000-style knots, I’m now allowing entries that predict that we won’t know the winner by November 3 due to incomplete counts in one or more states. However, for such an entry to win, you must submit a complete list of the states you believe will be incomplete as of 12:00 noon, November 3, 2004, and your list must be 100% correct. (I want to avoid having “Yeah, Florida’s gonna be a mess” be a cop-out way to an easy win — this ought to do it.)

Anyway, now that that’s out of the way — let’s get ready to rumble! 🙂

Wow

Posted on October 28, 2004

It sure has been a long time since 1918. Congratulations Sox!

The November Surprise

Posted on October 27, 2004

So the GOP never got around to springing the long-feared “October Surprise”. Does that mean we’re going to actually get through this election without any monkey business?

Apparently not. It’s starting to look more and more like they have a “November Surprise” planned: a systematic and well-planned effort to drive people — especially minorities and other Democratic constituencies — away from the polls on Election Day.

The rumblings on this started a few days ago. I noticed it when I saw George Will fulminating in the Washington Post op-ed page about how laws like the National Voter Registration Act (better known as “Motor Voter”, this is the law that lets you register to vote at the DMV when you renew your driver’s license, which makes registration much less of a chore than it used to be) have opened the doors to a wave of fraudulent registrations.

My reaction to Will’s bluster was bewilderment; this was the first I’d ever heard of any such problem. But Democratic blogger and political operative NewDonkey saw it for what it really was:

What’s happening here is an effort to soften up the news media and the public for a truly audacious, and perhaps even desperate, gambit by the Republican Party that appears to be planned for election day: wholesale challenges to minority voters in battleground states in an effort to either (1) intimidate or demoralize likely Democratic voters, or (2) lay the groundwork for one of those Bush-v.-Gore-enabled retroactive legal actions aimed at reversing an adverse result. More likely, the aim is (3) both.

NewDonkey backed up that assertion with links to stories from the New York Times (“Big G.O.P. Bid to Challenge Voters at Polls in Key State“, Oct. 23) and the Washington Post (“Some Fear Ohio Will Be Florida of 2004“, Oct. 26) that described Republican efforts that certainly seemed to indicate that something was up.

Now it would appear that the BBC has turned up the smoking gun:

A secret document obtained from inside Bush campaign headquarters in Florida suggests a plan – possibly in violation of US law – to disrupt voting in the state’s African-American voting districts, a BBC Newsnight investigation reveals.
Two e-mails, prepared for the executive director of the Bush campaign in Florida and the campaign’s national research director in Washington DC, contain a 15-page so-called “caging list”.
It lists 1,886 names and addresses of voters in predominantly black and traditionally Democrat areas of Jacksonville, Florida.
An elections supervisor in Tallahassee, when shown the list, told Newsnight: “The only possible reason why they would keep such a thing is to challenge voters on election day.”

So there is at least one city in the U.S. where the local Republican Party has a list of specific people they are planning to try and keep from voting when they show up at the polls. Apparently that’s legal in Florida.

How many other states is that legal in?

And if that approach isn’t legal, apparently they’ll just find another. Just this afternoon a court in Ohio threw out a Republican effort to have 35,000 new voter registrations from that state discarded. So these people will be able to vote, right? Maybe not — the state GOP says they’re planning on placing 3,400 Republicans as poll monitors across the state, and these monitors may challenge the eligibility of individual voters. So the real impact of the court’s decision may have just been to guarantee that these 35,000 people are going to be harassed by a partisan political flack when they try to cast their ballot. Who’s to say that the local Republican offices in Ohio don’t have their own enemies lists, like the one from Florida, all drawn up and ready to go?

So keep your eyes on the battleground states — we may be about to witness one of the most audacious and naked power plays in American political history.

GeorgeWBush.com: For Americans Only?

Posted on October 27, 2004

According to Netcraft, the official Web site of the Bush campaign is blocking all visitors from outside the United States.

What’s up with that? Surely people outside the U.S. have an interest in knowing what President Bush’s positions on the issues are. And there are Americans abroad who are voting absentee (though most of them have already probably mailed their ballots). So why go to the trouble of blocking the traffic? I don’t get it.

They could at least have let in traffic from Poland…

Announcing: The JWM 2004 Election Day Prediction Contest!

Posted on October 25, 2004

The JWM 2004 Election Day Prediction Contest is open — follow this link to post your predictions!

It occurred to me today that as we come into the home stretch in this election (and Lord, it’s been long enough — my first post in this category is dated May 12, 2003!), it might be fun to liven things up a bit by giving y’all a chance to demonstrate your all-knowing political wisdom. So, it gives me great pleasure to announce the Just Well Mixed 2004 Election Day Prediction Contest.

Here’s how it’s gonna go down.

The way to win the contest will be to most accurately predict how the Electoral College vote will be distributed. That’s right, just like the Constitution, we couldn’t care less about the popular vote; it’s all about the Electoral College, baby.

The contest will officially be open for submissions on one day: Friday, October 29. On that day, I will open a post for contestants to post their entries. To enter, just add your prediction as a comment on that post. Predictions entered on other posts will be disregarded. The thread will be only be open for posting for that one day, to prevent anyone from taking advantage of more recent poll data to get an edge.

On November 3, after it is clear how the Electoral College votes are going to be distributed, I will announce the winner. The prize for winning will be a copy of the excellent political computer game President Forever, on me. (Contestants who already have PF or who can’t use it for whatever reason will receive the cash value of the prize instead.)

Submissions need at minimum only specify the candidates and how many electoral votes you believe each will receive. For example, BUSH 274, KERRY 251 is a perfectly valid entry. However, I encourage you to share how you calculated your prediction — why you believe certain battleground states will go the way you think they will, for example. If the winner includes this type of background, either in their comment or as a link to an entry on their own blog, I will throw in a copy of President Forever’s sister product, Prime Minister Forever (or the equivalent cash value), to say thanks for going to the extra effort.

Some potential complicating factors, and how I plan to deal with them:

• If there are multiple submissions of the winning entry — in other words, a tie — everyone who submitted a winning entry will be asked a tiebreaker question by e-mail within 1 week of Election Day. The winner of the tiebreaker will receive the prize.
• If we don’t know on November 3 what the Electoral College vote distribution is because of another 2000-style legal debacle, all bets are off (in more ways than one). Given the increasingly likely scenario of one or more states being tied up in Florida 2000-style knots, I’m now allowing entries that predict that we won’t know the winner by November 3 due to incomplete counts in one or more states. However, for such an entry to win, you must submit a complete list of the states you believe will be incomplete as of 12:00 noon, November 3, 2004, and your list must be 100% correct.
• If nobody gets a majority in the Electoral College — who cares? You can still win the prize even as the Republic crumbles around us. There’s nothing stopping you from predicting a (mathematically possible) 269-269 split.

So — it’s free to enter, and you could win some cool software. Why not give it a whirl? (And tell your friends, the more the merrier.)

To help you get started, here are some basic facts and resources that can help you figure out what your predictions should be:

About the Electoral College Process

• There are a total of 538 Electoral College votes available.
• To win the Presidency, a candidate must receive a majority of these votes. A “majority” is defined as 50% of the votes plus one, which for a total of 538 means that a minimum of 270 is required to claim victory.
• Each state receives a number of Electoral College votes equal to the number of Members of Congress (Representatives plus Senators) it has. Because states get seats in the House of Representatives based on their population, this means that states with large populations end up with more Electoral College votes than do states with small populations.
• Other states with smaller populations are nonetheless important because they are “battleground states”. These are states where theoretically either candidate could convince a majority of the population to vote for him. These states are important because they are the only places where a candidate can win new Electoral College votes — getting more votes in a state that already favors his candidacy doesn’t impact the College in any way. Battleground states in 2004 include Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri.

Tools and Resources

• The Electoral Vote Predictor — the motherlode. EVP is chock full of polling data from every state that matters in this year’s contest, which you can see in graph form or as the raw CSV data.
• PBS Politics 101 Electoral College Map — this neat little app lets you turn states red and blue interactively, and see how flipping them affects the overall count for each candidate. This is a fast and easy way to work up your overall total once you have figured out the trends in the states.

That’s it for now. If you have feedback or questions about the contest, drop me a line before Friday and I’ll be happy to consider changes where necessary. And now — start working on those predictions!

UPDATE: Oscar asks what happens if someone submits more than one entry. Could they “spam” the contest by putting in a whole range of submissions covering all possible outcomes? It’s a good question. The answer is, no they couldn’t, because I am going to only take the latest comment (as timestamped by Movable Type) — all earlier ones will be disregarded. So you can change your entry if you want, but don’t go whining to me if it turns out your earlier prediction was the right one!

Treo 650 Announced

Posted on October 25, 2004

The new Treo 650 is finally out announced. (Sorry for the confusion — that’s what I get for being blinded by the pretty toys…

(drool)

The Gonzo Endorsement

Posted on October 25, 2004

One of my personal creative heroes is Hunter S. Thompson, literary genius and original Mad Doctor of Gonzo Journalism. Thompson’s voice and style are so vibrant that things he wrote decades ago still crackle on the page like a live wire. What a talent!

Anyway, Thompson has endorsed John Kerry in a long and funny piece in Rolling Stone:

BULLETIN
KERRY WINS GONZO ENDORSMENT; DR. THOMPSON JOINS DEMOCRAT IN CALLING BUSH “THE SYPHILLIS PRESIDENT”
“Four more years of George Bush will be like four more years of syphilis,” the famed author said yesterday at a hastily called press conference near his home in Woody Creek, Colorado. “Only a fool or a sucker would vote for a dangerous loser like Bush,” Dr. Thompson warned. “He hates everything we stand for, and he knows we will vote against him in November.”
Thompson, long known for the eerie accuracy of his political instincts, went on to denounce Ralph Nader as “a worthless Judas Goat with no moral compass.”
“I endorsed John Kerry a long time ago,” he said, “and I will do everything in my power, short of roaming the streets with a meat hammer, to help him be the next President of the United States.”

Enjoy.

From the Walking and Chewing Gum Dept.

Posted on October 23, 2004

Best line yet:

Democrat John Kerry has taken to summarizing the presidential fight with a line that’s both a dig at his opponent and an appeal to undecided voters. “A president,” Kerry says, “has to be able to do more than one thing at the same time.”

Next thing you know he’ll start wearing these.

Just Coming Out And Saying It

Posted on October 22, 2004

Check out the billboard Atrios spotted outside Allentown, PA.

Apparently they’ve gone up in Ohio and Michigan, too.

Power Politics III

Posted on October 21, 2004

This is cool… it’s another entry to the burgeoning field of political games, but this one has a great pedigree — Power Politics III is the latest release from Randy Chase, the designer of the pioneering election simulator Power Politics from back in 1992. I used to be absolutely addicted to that game.

What’s even cooler is that, thanks to the sponsorship of the Christian Science Monitor, Rock the Vote, and the Gallup Poll, the basic version of Power Politics III (which contains all the candidates who actually ran in the 2004 campaign) is 100% free. If you want to play historic or “what-if” campaigns, you can upgrade for $29.95 to the “Fantasy” edition, which includes 90 additional candidate files and the Candidate Editor so you can create your own match-ups. (Power Politics had a similar ability to let you run modern candidates against historic ones — but you were always stuck in the milieu of the 1992 campaign, which limited the appeal of, say, Richard Nixon somewhat. No word on the site if PP3 models different election years as well as different candidates.)

It’ll be interesting to see how this latest work from a pioneer in this whole field matches up against more recent efforts like The Political Machine and President Forever.

ALCS Game 7

Posted on October 21, 2004

Boy, was that some ball game or what?

Running Scared

Posted on October 20, 2004

How can you tell that some Republicans are starting to take the prospect of a Kerry victory seriously?

They’re arguing that Kerry is actually ineligible to be President of the United States — thanks to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

What does the Section in question say?

Section 3.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Law professor Eugene Volokh summarizes the argument thusly:

Kerry, the argument goes, gave “aid or comfort” to the North Vietnamese by opposing the war, and by apparently meeting with a North Vietnamese peace delegation in Paris in 1971. One or both of these things (probably the former much more than the latter) may have emboldened our enemies and sapped our soldiers’ morale, thus giving the enemy aid or comfort. Kerry had previously taken an oath to support the Constitution when an officer of the United States (military officers, including lieutenants, definitely count). The Presidency is an “office” (see, e.g., art. II, sec. 1, cl. 5.) Therefore, the argument concludes, Kerry is disqualified.

Yes — they are seriously wondering if Kerry can be barred from the Presidency on the grounds that he was a traitor to his country for his actions during the Vietnam War.

Both Volokh and the Opinionated Bastard eventually get around to admitting that the charge is baseless — you can’t call someone a “traitor” just for protesting a war, and the only incident that goes beyond that they’ve managed to dig up, a trip he took to Paris in 1970 during which he met with all the different delegations to the peace talks (including the Communist delegation), frankly doesn’t sound that incriminating: he indicated when he told Congress of his trip in 1971 that he had been aware of the ban on individuals negotiating privately with foreign governments, and had observed it, so unless anyone has got proof that he didn’t they’re just trafficking in innuendo.

And that’s what this is really about — innuendo. It’s another example of people floating rumors to get them out there in circulation, even all the while denying that THEY believe them, so that they can’t be called to account for them later on. In other words, it’s just another case of Michelle Malkin-ism.

Look, kids, treason is a damn serious charge. Unless you’ve got some, you know, evidence, you really shouldn’t drag it out.

(And if Kerry really does win? Get ready for four years of this kind of stuff.)

Child’s Play DC

Posted on October 20, 2004

The guys at Penny Arcade are doing their Child’s Play children’s charity drive again this year, where they ask people to help them buy toys and video games for childrens’ hospitals — but since last year’s first run was so successful, they’ve expanded out to five cities this year, including Washington, D.C.’s Children’s National Medical Center.

(You can see photos on their site of the absolutely amazing volume of toys they pulled together last year — more than $100,000 worth! — for one children’s hospital last year.)

That’s right D.C. folks, your gift to Child’s Play can now benefit your own community, and they’ve got toys on the list as inexpensive as a $2.50 box of crayons. What the hell are you waiting for?

A Question

Posted on October 19, 2004

Why isn’t MoveOn running Errol Morris’ brilliant anti-Bush ads?

They had a fundraising drive through MoveOn PAC a few months ago to raise money for precisely that purpose. But now I can’t find any mention of the ads on MoveOn’s site, and as far as I know the ads never ran anywhere except on their Web site.

What gives? These things are too good to be bottled up…

La Tasca

Posted on October 19, 2004

I ate at a really good tapas restaurant this weekend, so I thought I’d pass the recommendation along to my readers in the DC area. It’s called La Tasca — apparently it’s part of a British chain, but you wouldn’t know it when you’re in the place; the atmosphere is terrific and the food is amazing and reasonably priced. It was a really good time.

If you’re curious, I had the Buey al Jerez (grilled marinated flank steak with sherry sauce) and the Pollo al Ajillo (roasted chicken thighs in white wine & garlic). The beef was just way too good for me to describe here — juicy and flavorful. The chicken was slightly less impressive, but still quite good. Both were far better than I had any right to expect after picking a restaurant essentially at random off the street, that’s for sure!

Oh, and the desserts are insanely great too. Shell out the extra few bucks for dessert, you won’t regret it.

The location I went to is at 722 7th St. NW, in Penn Quarter, not far from the Convention Center. Apparently there’s another one in Arlington (near Clarendon Metro) too, for you Northern Virginians who refuse to come into the city for whatever reason.

Jon Stewart is My Hero

Posted on October 16, 2004

Did you see Jon Stewart’s appearance on Crossfire last night?

Sweet Jesus, it was something else. He took advantage of the live show to hijack the program and call out Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala for just playing the partisan he-said she-said gotcha game, instead of really trying to dig for the truth. Media Matters has the video if you want to see it for yourself.

The meta-irony is that Carlson actually tries to play the gotcha game on Stewart while he’s doing this! And Stewart shoots him down in flames. At least Begala has the sense to hang back and let Carlson hang himself.

Highlights (taken from the official transcript):

STEWART: I made a special effort to come on the show today, because I have privately, amongst my friends and also in occasional newspapers and television shows, mentioned this show as being bad.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: We have noticed.
STEWART: And I wanted to — I felt that that wasn’t fair and I should come here and tell you that I don’t — it’s not so much that it’s bad, as it’s hurting America.
(LAUGHTER)
CARLSON: But in its defense…
(CROSSTALK)
STEWART: So I wanted to come here today and say…
(CROSSTALK)
STEWART: Here’s just what I wanted to tell you guys.
CARLSON: Yes.
STEWART: Stop.
(LAUGHTER)
STEWART: Stop, stop, stop, stop hurting America.

---

CARLSON: Kerry won’t come on this show. He will come on your show.
STEWART: Right.
CARLSON: Let me suggest why he wants to come on your show.
STEWART: Well, we have civilized discourse.
(LAUGHTER)
CARLSON: Well, here’s an example of the civilized discourse.
Here are three of the questions you asked John Kerry.
STEWART: Yes.
CARLSON: You have a chance to interview the Democratic nominee. You asked him questions such as — quote — “How are you holding up? Is it hard not to take the attacks personally?”
STEWART: Yes.
CARLSON: “Have you ever flip-flopped?” et cetera, et cetera.
STEWART: Yes.
CARLSON: Didn’t you feel like — you got the chance to interview the guy. Why not ask him a real question, instead of just suck up to him?
STEWART: Yes. “How are you holding up?” is a real suck-up. And I actually giving him a hot stone massage as we were doing it.
(LAUGHTER)
CARLSON: It sounded that way. It did.
STEWART: You know, it’s interesting to hear you talk about my responsibility.
CARLSON: I felt the sparks between you.
STEWART: I didn’t realize that — and maybe this explains quite a bit.
CARLSON: No, the opportunity to…
(CROSSTALK)
STEWART: … is that the news organizations look to Comedy Central for their cues on integrity.
(LAUGHTER)

---

CARLSON: Jon, Jon, Jon, I’m sorry. I think you’re a good comedian. I think your lectures are boring.
STEWART: Yes.
CARLSON: Let me ask you a question on the news.
STEWART: Now, this is theater. It’s obvious. How old are you?
(CROSSTALK)
CARLSON: Thirty-five.
STEWART: And you wear a bow tie.
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
CARLSON: Yes, I do. I do.
STEWART: So this is…
CARLSON: I know. I know. I know. You’re a…
(CROSSTALK)
STEWART: So this is theater.

Stewart has been on the record as hating these types of shows for a long time — see, for example, this interview of him from last year on PBS’s Now with Bill Moyers, where he made his opinion pretty clear:

MOYERS: Which is funnier? CROSSFIRE or HARDBALL?
STEWART: CROSSFIRE or HARDBALL? Which is funnier? Which is more soul-crushing, do you mean? Both are equally dispiriting in their… you know, the whole idea that political discourse has degenerated into shows that have to be entitled CROSSFIRE and HARDBALL. And you know, “I’m Gonna Beat Your Ass” or whatever they’re calling them these days is mind-boggling.
CROSSFIRE, especially, is completely an apropos name. It’s what innocent bystanders are caught in when gangs are fighting. And it just boggles my mind that that’s given a half hour, an hour a day to… I don’t understand how issues can be dissected from the left and from the right as though… even cartoon characters have more than left and right. They have up and down.
I mean, how… it’s so two-dimensional to think that any analysis can come from, “It’s the left and it’s the right and well, we’ve had that discussion and that’s done.”

But for him to take his critique into the belly of the beast, on live TV… amazing. A serious must-watch.

MSDN Library FINALLY Gets Organized

Posted on October 15, 2004

Thank GOD! Microsoft has finally reorganized the MSDN Library. The old, sprawling, incomprehensible table of contents has been cut back to just eight top-level subjects, and they are clear enough (“Web Development”, “Office Development”, “.NET Development”, etc.) that it’s no longer a mystery where to look to find something like the reference manual for IIS. What a relief.

Of course, it only took them six years or so to do it, but better late than never, I guess…

The Third Presidential Debate

Posted on October 13, 2004

Kerry in a walk.

Seriously. Bush’s entire rhetorical arsenal seemed to consist of just flatly denying whatever Kerry said. Weak, weak, weak.

And the “Massachusetts liberal” thing? Tired. It actually surprised me how off-key it sounded hearing Bush harp on it. Calling a Democratic candidate a “tax and spend liberal” had a lot more sting in 1988. Today — when Democrats have a decade-plus record of paying down budget deficits, and a Republican President and Congress have managed to run them right back up again — it just defies reality.

Of course, “denying reality” seems to be a large component of the Bush strategy, so I probably shouldn’t be surprised. But I don’t think it paid him any dividends tonight.

Santo Gold!

Posted on October 12, 2004

One of my primary regrets in life is that I’ve never seen this infomercial.

Read the description and tell me you don’t wish you could see it!

Kerry Winning Where It Counts

Posted on October 11, 2004

Taegan Goddard has some interesting new poll data showing that Kerry crushed Bush in the second debate in the eyes of the people who these things matter to — independent/swing voters.

I Guess He Wasn’t “Edgy” Enough for Letterman

Posted on October 10, 2004

So I downloaded a few of those President Forever scenarios I was talking about a couple of days ago. On the whole, they are really creative and well done. However, some of them push the PF engine in ways I’m not sure it should be pushed.

One example is the “Protestant Reformation” scenario, which — yes — turns President Forever into a game of the struggle to control Europe’s religious direction in the 16th century. Creative? Sure. However, since PF is oriented towards modern, media-driven politics, trying to model the Reformation within it is… well… let’s just say it’s interesting. It’s hard to know how to react when you see a screen like this:

I was especially struck by the second headline, which told me that William of Orange absolutely killed in his appearance on Leno. I’m sure he would have!

The Second Presidential Debate

Posted on October 10, 2004

Meh.

A draw. Bush did better than he did in the first debate, but that’s not exactly a high bar to clear. Kerry turned in another good showing, but missed some opportunities to deal Bush a knockout blow.

The big story is that Kerry is increasingly looking and sounding Presidential in these things — more so than Bush. That’s going to reassure a lot of swing voters who are dissatisfied with the way things are going but who are scared that Kerry’s not up to the job. Bush’s whole strategy so far has been to convince voters that Kerry is, in the words of the Swift Boat Liars, “Unfit for Command” — and that’s an assertion that is seeming more hollow each time the two men meet in debate.

It’ll be interesting to see what Bush & Rove come up with to try and seize back the initiative in the next couple of weeks.

President Forever Scenarios

Posted on October 9, 2004

Holy moley, look at all the scenarios people have written for the great political game President Forever. I gotta try some of these.

Sticking to the Script

Posted on October 8, 2004

David Weinberger is betting that he can write the stories we’ll see tomorrow about tonight’s debate before it even happens.

Are journalists so tied to the “storyline” for the election that such an exercise will look more prescient than silly? Check your newspaper tomorrow to find out…